Serbia’s economy began 2026 with moderate growth, with real GDP up 3.0% year on year in the first quarter. The National Bank of Serbia’s expectations were broadly met, according to the data cited in an NBS presentation. The quarter’s expansion was driven mainly by services, while industry and construction contributed slightly negatively.
Services drive first-quarter activity
The NBS presentation points to trade, tourism and catering as the main service-sector drivers. Real retail trade turnover increased 8.3% year on year, while tourist arrivals rose 7.8%. These indicators were linked to resilient domestic demand and stronger household spending in consumer-facing services.
Labour and wage figures align with the same pattern of household support. Average net wages reached RSD 117,276, or about €999, in January–February 2026. Wages were up 11.2% nominally and 8.5% in real terms, supporting demand across retail, travel and hospitality, as well as housing demand.
The wage trend also connects to credit growth, with household loans increasing 20.9% year on year in March. Strong real wage dynamics were cited as a factor behind that increase. The data also reflect continued activity in consumer-related segments.
Industrial output softens while exports remain supported
A services-led growth pattern has limits for external performance, the NBS materials indicate. While it can support short-term GDP, fiscal revenues and employment in selected sectors, it does not automatically translate into higher export capacity or productivity. Serbia’s sovereign outlook is described as depending on manufacturing, tradable-sector foreign direct investment and export diversification.
The industrial picture in early 2026 was weaker than the services component. Industrial production fell 0.8% quarter on quarter in the first quarter, with manufacturing down 0.4%. Mining declined 3.2%, and construction was described as weak.
The longer-term manufacturing export record remains stronger in the figures provided. Goods exports increased 8.7% in 2025 and rose 7.4% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Manufacturing exports grew 9.1%, while motor vehicle exports climbed 59.0%.
FDI inflows and external balance feed the rating focus
The resilience of the industrial export base is linked to foreign direct investment flows over time. Between 2018 and 2025, Serbia attracted a total of €28.4bn in FDI, with nearly 60% directed to tradable sectors and around €8.4bn into manufacturing.
The materials also connect this investment to export capacity, supplier networks and industrial employment. They further cite that FDI is one of the reasons Serbia secured investment-grade recognition from S&P . The rating focus is described as tied to sustaining manufacturing and tradables.
The external balance figures included in the NBS outlook show a current-account deficit of only 0.8% of GDP in the first quarter. The NBS expects it to widen to 5.9% of GDP in 2026 . A stronger manufacturing export base is presented as important for keeping that widening manageable.
Construction outlook and credit allocation for 2027 growth
A recovery in construction is also highlighted for the next phase of growth acceleration. The NBS expects GDP growth to rise to 4.5% in 2027, supported by Expo-related investment and services exports . Public investment is described as needing to flow efficiently through construction, infrastructure, logistics and urban projects.
The early-2026 construction weakness is described as not decisive but indicative that execution cannot be assumed . The materials also describe how bank lending can affect the growth model through its allocation across borrowers and uses of funds.
If lending increasingly finances investment, export-oriented companies, energy infrastructure, logistics and productive SMEs, it can strengthen Serbia’s medium-term growth base . If credit remains concentrated in household cash loans, mortgages and working-capital liquidity, it may support demand without lifting productivity enough . Services momentum is therefore presented as needing alignment with renewed industrial and construction contributions for the next growth phase.
