The IT sector in Serbia, alongside regional markets, is approaching 2026 with heightened caution, contrasting the optimism seen in prior years. Following a phase of rapid growth, many firms are now encountering a cooling of demand, decelerated investment growth, and increased market pressures. These challenges are attributed to tightening global macroeconomic conditions and a more selective approach from clients regarding technology expenditures.
A significant factor influencing this cautious outlook is the global slowdown in investment growth, especially from Western markets that contribute a major portion of revenue for Serbian IT service providers and outsourcing companies. Firms that enjoyed swift expansion without a sustainable business model or those heavily dependent on specific client categories—particularly in outsourcing—are now experiencing the repercussions of a market that emphasizes measurable returns on investment and value delivery.
According to Saša Popović, founder and CEO of IT firm Vega, a combination of economic and geopolitical factors will render 2026 more challenging. Key elements include interest rates and inflation dynamics, persistent geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting regulatory landscapes—particularly concerning artificial intelligence, data privacy, and cybersecurity. This tightening environment suggests that IT spending is likely to grow at a slower pace than in previous years, with clients focusing on projects that promise clear, short-term returns.
Additionally, there is a notable surge in investments directed towards artificial intelligence. While AI continues to dominate technology spending discussions, there are apprehensions regarding the sustainability of the “AI investment bubble” that emerged from substantial expenditures in 2025. Should this bubble deflate or transition into a consolidation phase, further investment slowdowns could occur as capital is reallocated and investors reassess associated risks and returns. This scenario may complicate funding or contract growth for IT firms in 2026.
Despite these obstacles, some growth is still anticipated. In Western markets, an IT spending increase of approximately 10% in 2026 is projected, indicating opportunities for companies that can deliver high-quality services and secure a share of available projects. Firms that emphasize measurable value delivery, adhere to project timelines, and diversify their market presence may achieve success even within these constrained conditions.
Overall, 2026 is expected to present more challenges for the IT sector, marked by slower investment growth, heightened expectations for returns on technology spending, geopolitical and regulatory pressures, and potential declines in certain high-growth areas like AI. Nevertheless, opportunities persist for adaptable companies focused on value delivery and effective competition in a more disciplined market landscape.
