Corporate borrowing in Serbia increased during early 2026 as companies expanded financing for investment, working capital and higher operating needs. The rise in credit activity supported business operations, but corporate balance sheets continued to face structural risks from high foreign-currency exposure and a growing number of blocked business accounts.
Both domestic bank lending and external corporate borrowing recorded strong year-on-year growth. Total corporate debt increased at a low double-digit annual rate, marking a recovery after the weaker lending environment recorded during 2023 and 2024. Corporate loans reached slightly above 40% of GDP, rising from recent lows. The ratio remained below previous peaks, indicating that overall corporate indebtedness had not reached excessive aggregate levels.
Foreign-Currency Loans Dominate Corporate Debt Structure
The main concern remains the structure of corporate borrowing rather than the overall volume of debt. Nearly 80% of banks’ claims on companies were denominated in or indexed to foreign currencies, mainly euros. Although lending in dinars has increased, it continues to represent a smaller share of total corporate financing. The high level of euro-linked borrowing creates different levels of exposure depending on companies’ revenue structures.
Export-oriented businesses with euro income streams, including automotive suppliers, mining companies and manufacturers selling to EU markets, can match foreign-currency debt obligations with corresponding revenues. Companies such as domestic retailers, construction firms, utilities and service providers may face greater exposure when revenues are mainly generated in dinars while liabilities are linked to the euro. Their financial position can be affected by higher EURIBOR rates, increased refinancing costs or movements in the dinar-euro exchange rate.
The National Bank of Serbia’s policy of maintaining relative dinar stability has limited immediate currency-related credit risks, although it does not remove the longer-term structural exposure created by foreign-currency borrowing.
Manufacturing and Trade Account for Largest Corporate Loan Shares
Corporate lending remains concentrated among several major sectors. Mining and manufacturing accounted for 25.7% of corporate bank claims, followed by trade with 22.8%, real estate with 13.2%, transport with 11.5%, construction with 10.9%, electricity and energy with 10.1%, and agriculture with 4.6%.
Each sector faces different operating risks. Manufacturing companies depend on EU market demand and imported production inputs, while mining businesses remain exposed to metals prices and project implementation risks. Construction and real estate companies are influenced by interest-rate conditions, permitting processes and property demand. Transport operators face exposure to fuel costs and trade volumes, while energy investments depend on grid conditions, regulatory developments and commodity markets.
Blocked Accounts Signal Rising Liquidity Pressure
The number of companies with blocked accounts increased to approximately 50,000, while the value of blocked funds approached RSD230 billion. Both indicators remained below historical highs but moved upward from post-pandemic lows. The increase suggests growing cash-flow pressure among smaller and less capitalised businesses, even as overall bank asset quality remains strong.
Blocked accounts can emerge before formal loan deterioration appears in non-performing loan indicators, meaning liquidity stress may become visible before banks record a corresponding rise in impaired loans.
Credit Expansion Requires Focus on Investment Quality
Industrial activity showed mixed developments during the quarter. Manufacturing and mining improved, while electricity production remained volatile. Companies increasing output while domestic electricity availability weakens may face higher energy costs and increased dependence on electricity imports.
Corporate borrowing can support investment and productivity when financing is directed toward areas such as machinery upgrades, export capacity, renewable-energy projects and energy-efficiency improvements. Such investments can generate additional cash flow to service debt. Credit used to cover persistent operating losses or overdue supplier obligations can delay necessary restructuring rather than improve business sustainability.
Banks are expected to distinguish between companies benefiting from genuine demand expansion and those using additional borrowing to absorb rising costs. Risk assessments need to consider foreign-currency interest rates, energy prices, customer concentration and delays in public-sector or construction-related receivables. Serbia’s corporate sector remains without excessive aggregate leverage, but the combination of rapid credit growth, high euroisation of corporate debt and rising blocked-account indicators requires more selective lending practices in the next stage of the economic cycle.
