Serbia Targets Net Power Exports While Maintaining Significant Electricity Imports

Serbia is expected to record a modest electricity surplus in 2026, with planned exports exceeding imports, but the annual balance masks continued dependence on imported power for seasonal shortages, generation outages and hourly differences between electricity production and consumption.

The official electricity balance projects 6,931GWh of electricity imports in 2026, approximately 14% below the 2025 level, alongside exports of around 7,410GWh, an increase of about 2%. The resulting annual net-export position would amount to only 479GWh.

Despite the positive balance, electricity flows in both directions remain substantial. Planned gross imports equal roughly 23% of projected final electricity consumption of 29,972GWh, while combined imports and exports are expected to reach approximately 14.3TWh.

Power Trading Reflects Seasonal and Hourly Market Conditions

Serbia’s electricity position increasingly depends on timing rather than annual totals. The country can export power during periods of strong lignite, hydropower, wind or solar generation, while importing electricity during cold-weather peaks, drought periods or unexpected thermal plant outages. A positive annual physical balance does not automatically translate into stronger trading results, as imported electricity may be purchased during periods when regional prices are significantly higher.

The exposure remains closely linked to Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS), whose generation portfolio is dominated by lignite-fired thermal plants and hydropower facilities, with wind and solar providing a growing but smaller contribution. Imports become necessary when coal availability, mining performance, thermal-unit reliability or hydrological conditions reduce domestic generation below demand requirements.

Domestic Generation Availability Determines Import Needs

The planned reduction from approximately 8.1TWh of imports in 2025 to 6.9TWh in 2026 assumes improved availability of domestic generation assets and greater stability across the electricity system. The margin remains limited. The extended outage of a major thermal unit for an additional month could create several hundred gigawatt-hours of replacement electricity demand, depending on installed capacity and utilisation rates.

At indicative wholesale replacement prices, the planned 6,931GWh of gross imports would represent a market value of approximately:

• €555 million at €80/MWh
• €693 million at €100/MWh
• €901 million at €130/MWh

These figures represent indicative gross market values rather than EPS procurement costs, as actual imports are conducted through different market hours, products, contracts and counterparties.

Renewables Change the Structure of Power Imports

The timing of electricity purchases is becoming increasingly important. Energy imported during periods of low-price solar generation may cost significantly less than electricity purchased during winter evening peaks. Serbia’s generation structure creates particular exposure to expensive periods. Lignite plants provide large-scale baseload generation but have limited flexibility, while hydropower offers valuable peak capacity but depends on reservoir levels and water inflows.

Wind generation can reduce imports during winter and overnight periods when solar output is unavailable. Solar capacity can lower daytime electricity purchases, particularly during spring and summer, but large-scale deployment may also create midday surpluses followed by increased evening demand. The planned 1GW solar programme with battery storage could modify Serbia’s import profile by shifting part of daytime solar production into evening periods, providing balancing services and reducing purchases during higher-priced hours. However, storage cannot replace firm thermal and hydropower capacity during extended renewable production shortages.

Serbia currently has approximately 1,232MW of installed wind and solar capacity, compared with slightly more than 400MW several years ago, and aims to reach around 3.5GW by 2030. The impact of additional renewable capacity on imports will depend on grid availability, curtailment levels, storage deployment and project generation profiles.

Cross-Border Connections Support Market Flexibility

Serbia’s electricity imports also reflect its regional trading position. The country is interconnected with Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Albania, allowing access to markets with different generation structures. Connections with Hungary provide exposure to Central European electricity prices and the HUPX market reference, while Romania and Bulgaria contribute access to nuclear, hydro and renewable generation patterns. Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina add additional exposure to hydro-driven market changes.

These interconnections allow Serbia to purchase electricity when neighbouring markets offer lower prices, meaning some imports represent commercial optimisation rather than a lack of domestic supply. Electricity can also enter Serbia and subsequently leave through another border, strengthening the country’s role as a regional electricity transit and trading hub.

Import Costs Affect EPS Liquidity and Industrial Consumers

The value of cross-border trading opportunities depends on available transmission capacity. Import capacity is limited and allocated through auctions and market procedures, while periods of regional shortages can increase both electricity prices and the value of transmission access. The financial impact of imports extends to EPS liquidity, working capital and credit requirements. Electricity purchases require collateral, financing arrangements and cash availability, particularly when conducted through exchanges or short-term bilateral contracts.

A €20/MWh increase across the planned import volume would add approximately €139 million to gross procurement expenditure. The actual effect would depend on hedging arrangements, bilateral agreements, export revenues and the share of purchases made on spot markets. Industrial consumers are also exposed because supplier pricing reflects domestic generation costs, SEEPEX market prices, cross-border alternatives, balancing expenses and risk premiums.

For large electricity users, demand management is becoming increasingly important. Companies able to shift production away from peak periods can reduce exposure to expensive import hours, while behind-the-meter solar, battery storage and long-term renewable PPAs can provide additional cost control.

Carbon Rules Add New Considerations for Electricity Trade

Electricity exports to the European Union face additional commercial considerations under the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), whose definitive regime begins in 2026. The impact depends on emissions calculation methods, importer obligations and the ability to document the characteristics of exported electricity. The system does not apply as a uniform charge to every megawatt-hour.

The changing carbon framework could influence trading strategies, particularly if Serbia exports lower-carbon electricity while importing more expensive or higher-carbon electricity during other periods. As a result, hourly generation, import and export data may become more important than annual electricity balances.

Generation Risks Remain Central to 2026 Outlook

The main uncertainty for Serbia’s 2026 electricity plan is domestic generation performance. Lower lignite availability, delayed maintenance, thermal-unit failures or weak hydrology could increase imports beyond the planned 6,931GWh. A simultaneous regional shortage would increase the financial impact because replacement electricity would need to be purchased when market prices and cross-border capacity costs are elevated.

Conversely, favourable hydrological conditions, stronger thermal availability and faster renewable commissioning could reduce imports and increase exports, improving EPS cash generation. Even in such a scenario, imports may remain commercially justified during periods of lower regional electricity prices.

Serbia’s projected 479GWh net-export position therefore provides only a limited view of the electricity system. The more significant indicators are the 6.9TWh gross import requirement, hourly price differences, EPS generation availability, hydrological conditions, transmission costs and the proportion of electricity secured before day-ahead market trading. Electricity imports have become part of Serbia’s normal operating model as the power system becomes more interconnected, renewable-focused and sensitive to regional price movements. The key objective is not eliminating imports entirely, but avoiding involuntary purchases during the most expensive market periods while maintaining the flexibility to trade when external electricity supplies are economically favourable.