With US sanctions on Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) potentially taking effect on October 8, Serbia is evaluating alternative ways to import crude oil and petroleum products. Sanctions would likely block NIS from making payments, preventing purchases on the global market or via the Adriatic Pipeline (JANAF), Serbia’s main route for crude oil, which supplies the Pančevo refinery. Prior to the sanctions threat, JANAF provided about 70% of diesel and 85% of gasoline consumed domestically.
The only concrete alternative so far comes from Hungary. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced that MOL is preparing to increase exports of oil and derivatives to Serbia. However, even this may not fully cover domestic demand. Other potential options include imports via Romania’s Constanța port, Black Sea terminals in Russia, or Kazakhstan, though European sanctions on Russian oil make these routes difficult or costly. Serbia also lacks sufficient river tankers, trucks, and railcars for large-scale transport.
Energy analyst Jelica Putniković notes that Serbia previously relied on Constanța and Danube river barges during the 1990s sanctions, but even then, supply shortages occurred. Today, with Romania and Bulgaria in the EU, it is uncertain whether they would cooperate under sanctions. Pančevo’s infrastructure may also be insufficient to handle large crude shipments.
Financial analyst Vladan Pavlović adds that derivatives could come from Russian or Kazakh crude via Hungary without technically violating sanctions. However, NIS itself could not independently purchase oil under blocked accounts, so the state might need to act as purchaser, which carries risks of secondary sanctions.
Pavlović emphasizes that the main challenge is not regulated fuel prices but limited logistics: insufficient tanker trucks, railcars, and barges could create opportunities for speculation and black-market activity. Importing only crude instead of finished products would still require NIS to process and pay for it, meaning state intervention would likely be necessary.
In short, Serbia’s best-case scenario is a diplomatic agreement between the US and Russia on NIS, as all other options are limited, costly, or logistically challenging.
