Serbia has submitted a request to the United States for another six-month postponement of sanctions against the Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS), according to RTS. The latest 30-day delay expires on Saturday at 6 a.m. local time.
Economist Velimir Lukić expressed confidence that Washington is unlikely to make a decision unfavorable to Serbia, especially in the current global energy climate. He emphasized the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20–30 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas is transported. Any disruption there, he warned, could lead to global supply instability.
Countries most vulnerable to potential disruptions include China, India, and other Asian nations. Europe, which depends on liquefied natural gas from Qatar, is also at high risk. A closure of the strait due to conflict or attacks could significantly raise energy prices, including oil and LNG, Lukić explained.
While recent market signals suggest some stabilization, Lukić cautioned that any escalation—such as retaliatory bombings—could further destabilize the energy market.
He noted that the United States is in a stronger position due to its increased oil production over the past decades, while Europe and Asia remain more exposed.
Reflecting on past U.S. decisions to delay sanctions, Lukić said Serbia’s arguments have so far been respected by the U.S. Treasury and OFAC. He believes another delay—possibly even up to two months—is likely and would be a positive outcome.
Lukić concluded that U.S. attention is currently focused on the situation in Iran, particularly nuclear negotiations, and that this broader geopolitical context could play in Serbia’s favor.
