Serbia’s general-government finances recorded a marked improvement in the second quarter of 2026, with the fiscal position turning positive in April and reaching a RSD 49.1 billion surplus in June. The improvement followed a weak opening to the year. The general government registered deficits of RSD 42.3 billion in January, RSD 21.7 billion in February and nearly RSD 49 billion in March.
The fiscal balance subsequently moved into surplus, reaching RSD 7.5 billion in April, followed by a small positive balance in May and the significantly larger June surplus. Despite the improvement during the second quarter, the cumulative result for January-June remained a deficit of approximately RSD 55.8 billion.
First-half deficit remains above 2025 level
The first-half fiscal shortfall was substantially larger than a year earlier. Serbia recorded a deficit of around RSD 21.3 billion in January-June 2025, based on the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) monthly series.
The contrast between the strong June result and the cumulative first-half deficit is significant for assessing the government’s fiscal position. June’s figures indicate stronger revenue performance and expenditure control, while the January-June balance reflects the impact of the considerably weaker first quarter. Fiscal management remains particularly important as Serbia continues to finance major infrastructure programmes while seeking to maintain a declining public-debt ratio.
The government has benefited from an environment in which nominal GDP growth has helped reduce public debt relative to economic output, allowing moderate fiscal deficits without reversing the longer-term decline in the debt ratio.
Public debt remains on a declining longer-term trajectory
According to the Maastricht-based measure reported in the bulletin, consolidated general-government debt stood at approximately RSD 4.56 trillion at the end of Q1 2026. The reported debt ratio has continued to follow a declining longer-term path from levels above 50% of GDP several years ago.
This provides Serbia with greater fiscal space than during earlier periods of financial pressure, although the composition of government expenditure remains important for the future debt trajectory. Spending on infrastructure and other investments capable of increasing productivity can support temporary borrowing, while recurrent expenditure that primarily increases consumption has different implications for public finances.
Capital spending will shape the second-half position
The improvement recorded during the second quarter strengthens the fiscal position compared with the start of 2026, but the first-half figures do not yet establish that the full-year outcome will be stronger than in 2025. The fiscal balance is likely to face greater pressure later in the year as capital expenditure, wage commitments and other year-end spending become more significant. The June surplus therefore represents a substantial improvement within the first half, while the cumulative RSD 55.8 billion deficit shows that the stronger second-quarter performance has not yet offset the fiscal deterioration recorded during the opening months of 2026.
