Serbia’s dinar remained largely stable against the euro during the first half of 2026, with the currency weakening by only 0.1% during the period. The stability of the exchange rate continues to play an important role in an economy where many savings products, loans and commercial agreements remain linked to the euro.
A stable dinar helps limit imported inflation, reduces uncertainty for businesses and lowers exposure for borrowers with foreign-currency-indexed obligations.
National Bank Intervenes to Manage Exchange Rate Conditions
The exchange rate stability was supported by active intervention from the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) rather than by market conditions alone. During the first six months of 2026, the central bank was a net seller of €755 million on the foreign-exchange market. Pressure on the dinar was strongest during the first quarter, when global uncertainty and seasonal demand for foreign currency increased demand for euros.
Market conditions shifted from April, when the NBS began intervening more frequently as a buyer rather than a seller. In June alone, the central bank recorded net purchases of €405 million, reflecting stronger foreign-currency inflows and allowing reserves to be rebuilt after earlier interventions.
Foreign Exchange Reserves Provide External Protection
Serbia’s reserve position remained a major safeguard against external pressures. Gross foreign-exchange reserves reached €29.6 billion in June 2026, remaining close to the record level recorded one month earlier. The reserves covered slightly less than seven months of imports of goods and services and represented approximately 164% of the M1 money supply, exceeding commonly used reserve-adequacy benchmarks.
Gold holdings have also become an increasingly important component of Serbia’s reserve structure. The NBS held 54.6 tonnes of gold in June, more than three times the amount recorded in 2012. Gold accounted for slightly less than 21% of the total value of foreign reserves.
Credit Ratings Show Mixed External Assessments
Serbia’s sovereign-risk indicators have improved alongside stronger macroeconomic conditions, although international rating agencies continue to differ in their assessments. Standard & Poor’s assigns Serbia a BBB- rating with a stable outlook, placing the country at investment-grade status. Fitch maintains a BB+ rating with a positive outlook, while Moody’s rates Serbia Ba2 with a stable outlook.
Serbia’s euro-denominated risk premium stood at 167 basis points at the end of June, which was 8 basis points higher than at the end of 2025. The different agency assessments reflect that Serbia has reached investment-grade territory with one major rating agency, while further progress in fiscal credibility, external-account performance and institutional strength remains necessary for broader improvement.
Reserves Support Stability but Do Not Replace Economic Fundamentals
The NBS’s reserve holdings provide significant capacity to manage excessive exchange-rate volatility and respond to external shocks. Foreign reserves do not eliminate the underlying sources of currency risk, including energy imports, international capital movements and geopolitical uncertainty.
The long-term sustainability of exchange-rate stability will depend on export performance, investment inflows and domestic confidence, with central-bank intervention continuing to serve as a stabilizing mechanism rather than a replacement for underlying economic fundamentals.
