Inflation in Serbia reached 4.6 percent in January 2024 compared to the same month last year, with coffee and confectionery being the primary contributors to the increase. Specifically, confectionery prices rose by 15.1 percent and coffee by 12.6 percent year-over-year.
According to data from the Republic Institute of Statistics (RZS), food prices overall increased by 3.6 percent in the past year. The largest price hikes occurred in two product categories: sugar, jam, honey, and chocolate, with an increase of 15.1 percent, and coffee, tea and cocoa, which rose by 12.6 percent.
The rise in prices can be partially attributed to the movement of raw cocoa and coffee prices on the stock market.
Stock market price surge
Last year, cocoa prices surged by about 180 percent, from December to December, resulting in the largest global supply deficit in six years. This dramatic price increase was mainly due to adverse weather conditions in major cocoa-producing countries like Ghana and the Ivory Coast, which account for over 70 percent of global cocoa production.
Similarly, coffee prices rose by an average of 70 percent over the past year, driven primarily by unfavorable weather conditions in producing countries. Brazil, for instance, suffered its worst drought in seven decades, while Vietnam faced flooding due to typhoons.
Additionally, the conflict in the Middle East played a role. At the start of last year, it was announced that coffee-carrying ships would not pass through the Suez Canal due to attacks in the area. Rerouting ships around Africa added about four weeks to the journey, which, along with increased shipping costs, contributed to the rise in coffee prices.
Prices in Serbian stores
According to the Republic Institute of Statistics’ data for November 2024, the average price of a kilogram of coffee in Serbian stores was 1,894 dinars. This represents a 9.23 percent increase compared to the same month in 2023, when it cost 1,734 dinars.
For chocolate, the average price for a kilogram in November 2024 was 1,850 dinars, compared to 1,227 dinars a year earlier, indicating a 50 percent price increase.
Price increases across Europe
Price increases were also observed across Europe. In Montenegro, coffee prices rose by 20 percent during the summer, while in Croatia, prices jumped by 10 percent in October. According to Eurostat data, the highest year-over-year increases in coffee prices in October occurred in Estonia (13.3 percent), Denmark (12.5 percent), and Italy (11.8 percent).
Cocoa prices also saw an increase. In December 2024, consumer prices for cocoa and powdered chocolate products in the EU rose by 9.5 percent compared to May 2023. In Serbia, however, the increase was even higher—21.9 percent—placing the country sixth out of 33 European nations in terms of the rate of price increase for cocoa and chocolate powder in 2024.
According to data from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), cocoa grinding in Europe increased by four percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year.
Future outlook
Cocoa futures stabilized at less than $10,200 per ton after rising in the second week of February, according to Trading Economics. Heavy rains are expected in the Ivory Coast, which could improve growing conditions for cocoa trees. However, traders have noted reduced cocoa shipments from Ivory Coast ports, with concerns about quality.
As for coffee, Arabica futures fell to less than $4.1 per pound (about 450 grams), the lowest level in two weeks, according to Trading Economics. The site also reports that coffee sales in Brazil are higher than in previous years, meaning there is less coffee available for sale. By February 11, producers had sold 88 percent of Brazil’s coffee for the 2024/25 year. However, sales for 2025/26 were slower, with only 13 percent of sales completed, which is far below the average. This indicates a lack of new supply and caution from producers.
