Lower Import Prices Give Serbian Businesses Cost Relief in 2026

Serbian companies benefited from lower foreign input costs during the first five months of 2026, as declining import prices allowed businesses to purchase larger volumes of equipment, materials, components and consumer goods without a proportional increase in total import spending. Average euro-denominated import unit values decreased by 4.3% compared with January–May 2025.

At the same time, physical import volumes increased by 6.6%, while the total import value within the representative trade basket rose by only 2.0%. The combination created a period of imported disinflation, reducing cost pressures for manufacturers, retailers and infrastructure contractors and helping limit the impact of higher import demand on Serbia’s merchandise trade balance.

Lower input costs support manufacturing expansion

The strongest impact was recorded in intermediate goods used in industrial production. Import unit values for intermediate products declined by 3.7%, while physical volumes increased by 8.8%. Import value increased by 4.8%, significantly below the growth rate of imported quantities.

For manufacturers relying on imported chemicals, metals, plastics, electronic components and specialised industrial inputs, lower procurement costs can improve margins, particularly for companies able to maintain sales prices while replacing higher-cost inventories with cheaper supplies. The trend also contributed to manufacturing performance. Manufacturing import volumes increased by 8.8%, while manufacturing export volumes grew by 5.4%. Companies expanded purchases of foreign production inputs, but lower import prices reduced the financial burden of that expansion.

Chemicals and plastics benefit from cheaper inputs

Chemical products reflected the broader import-cost trend. Import unit values declined by approximately 2.2%, while physical import volumes increased by 8.1%. Import value rose by 5.8%. Chemical exports increased by 10.0%, driven mainly by higher physical export volumes. Rubber and plastics followed a similar pattern.

Import unit values declined by 3.9%, while physical import volumes increased by 6.8%. Export volumes rose by 5.2%, and the sector’s trade surplus expanded from approximately €449 million to €523 million.

Pharmaceutical imports become cheaper but data require caution

Pharmaceutical products recorded a larger decline in import prices. Import unit values fell by 15.9%, while physical import volumes increased by 2.1%. Import value declined to €772 million, reducing the pharmaceutical trade deficit from €642 million to €534 million.

Domestic pharmaceutical export volumes, however, declined by 10.0%. The pharmaceutical data require careful interpretation because unit values can change when the composition of imported medicines shifts between higher-cost and lower-cost products. Nevertheless, the figures indicate that Serbia paid less for the comparable imported pharmaceutical basket during the period.

Cheaper consumer imports affect retailers and producers

Consumer goods imports also became less expensive. Average import unit values declined by 4.5%, while physical import volumes increased by 4.9%. Total import value remained almost unchanged. The development supported household purchasing power and reduced pressure on retailers to increase prices. Furniture imports showed one of the clearest examples.

Import unit values declined by 11.0%, while physical import volumes increased by 24.9%. Import value increased by 11.2%, meaning Serbian buyers purchased significantly more imported furniture at lower average prices. For domestic furniture manufacturers, however, the same trend created stronger competition. Furniture exports remained broadly stable, while imports expanded rapidly, increasing pressure on local producers, particularly in the mass-market segment.

Import deflation creates different effects across industries

Lower import prices benefited companies using foreign inputs but created additional pressure for domestic producers competing against cheaper imported goods. Export-oriented factories could improve cost efficiency, while local manufacturers facing direct import competition had less room to increase prices. Retailers could use lower procurement costs to improve margins or reduce consumer prices. The final impact depended on market competition, inventory valuation and supplier contracts.

Capital equipment costs remain relatively stable

Capital goods showed a more moderate price movement. Import unit values increased by approximately 1.1%, while physical volumes rose by 1.2% within the representative economic-use classification. Complete customs data show capital-goods imports increasing by 5.3% to €3.31 billion.

The difference reflects variations in product coverage and classification. The moderate increase indicates continued investment activity without a significant equipment-price shock. Machinery, automation systems, vehicles and industrial technology remained important import categories, but price growth was below the levels recorded during previous supply-chain disruptions.

Energy imports provide major price relief

Energy recorded the most visible import-price reduction. Mineral-fuel import unit values declined by 16.3%, while physical import volumes increased by 21.5%. Lower energy costs supported transport companies, agricultural businesses and energy-intensive industries. Serbia’s overall energy deficit remained above €1.6 billion, showing that lower prices did not remove the country’s structural dependence on imported energy.

Impact on inflation and business financing

Lower import costs can influence inflation by reducing pressure from imported food, fuels, materials and consumer goods. The effect can support more stable producer and retail prices and reduce inflationary pressure. The pass-through from lower costs to final prices is not automatic. Companies may use lower procurement costs to rebuild margins after previous inflationary periods, offset higher wages or finance investment rather than immediately reduce selling prices. Working-capital requirements also remain important.

Businesses purchased larger physical quantities during the period, meaning financing needs could still increase even when average unit costs declined. The national trade data show this combination clearly: companies imported more goods, but lower prices limited the increase in required cash expenditure.

Currency and supply-chain risks remain

Exchange-rate movements can reduce part of the benefit from lower import prices. Many commodities and industrial products are priced in US dollars, while Serbian companies generate revenue mainly in dinars or euros. A weaker domestic currency against the dollar can increase local costs even if supplier prices remain unchanged. Import unit values also include product-mix effects.

A decline does not always mean that identical goods became cheaper. Importers may switch to lower-cost specifications, different suppliers or alternative products. Companies therefore need to distinguish between genuine supplier-price reductions and changes in purchase composition.

Companies use lower costs to strengthen competitiveness

The decline in import prices is unlikely to remain permanent. Commodity markets, transport costs, trade restrictions and geopolitical developments can quickly change procurement conditions. Companies that treat lower 2026 import costs as a permanent feature may face difficulties if replacement costs rise. The first five months of 2026 provided Serbian businesses with a period of lower imported costs while industrial demand and manufacturing activity expanded.

The strongest long-term benefit will depend on whether companies use the cost advantage to improve procurement systems, invest in automation, increase energy efficiency, strengthen inventory resilience or reduce financial exposure.