The European Union maintained its dominant position in Serbia’s merchandise trade in the first seven months of 2026, while China increased its share to 11.1%, according to the September edition of the Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends bulletin. EU member states accounted for 58.6% of Serbia’s goods trade, compared with 58.1% in the same period a year earlier.
Germany remained Serbia’s largest individual trading partner, with a 13.1% share, although its portion declined from 13.5% a year earlier. China retained second place as its share increased from 10.6% to 11.1%.
Italy strengthens its position
Italy recorded a particularly significant increase in its share of Serbian trade, rising from 6.5% to 7.8%. Serbia registered a €105.2 million trade surplus with Italy, compared with a €408.2 million deficit a year earlier. The shift was largely attributed to vehicle exports from Kragujevac. The trade figures reflect Serbia’s links with both the Chinese and European economies. Chinese companies have expanded their presence in mining, metals, infrastructure and manufacturing, while EU countries remain the main destination for Serbian exports and the core of its industrial supply chains.
EU market remains central to manufacturers
Serbian manufacturers continue to rely on demand from Germany, Italy and other EU markets. The European bloc is also the main source of industrial standards, product regulations and carbon-related requirements affecting Serbian exporters. Chinese investment provides Serbia with additional sources of capital, financing, suppliers and markets. However, increased Chinese ownership of production facilities in Serbia does not remove the need for access to European customers. This is particularly evident in the steel industry, where a Chinese-owned producer operating in Serbia must meet European quotas, origin requirements and carbon-related rules when supplying its main export market.
Trade requirements affect Chinese-linked production
EU trade-defence measures and increased scrutiny of products associated with Chinese capital or inputs could create additional requirements for Serbian exporters. Companies may face greater demands to document the origin and processing history of materials, including where inputs were produced, melted, processed and financed. Serbia has therefore expanded its economic relationship with China while maintaining strong commercial integration with the European Union. Its industrial production, including facilities owned by Chinese investors, continues to depend on access to the EU market.
